The Chicago Cubs are hitting line drives, home runs, but no doubles. They aren’t as patient as they were last year, yet there aren’t any real statistical indications that the Cubs are doing anything drastically different. The LD (line drive) rate is the same, the fly-ball ratio isn’t crazy high…

Then you get to Batting Average on Balls in Play, which has been overall below average, and for the big boys, Soto, Bradley, Soriano, waaaaayyyyyy below average. Short answer is that the Cubs have been unlucky, the long answer is that the Cubs have not benefited from the same base hits that fell in last year.

Which explains why the guys who did what they did last year aren’t doing it this year. Perhaps we’ll see a massive Cub resurgence, after all, look at some of these numbers:

Milton Bradley has a career rate of .321 for BABiP, this year he is at .282.

Soto career .321, this year he is at .258.

Soriano career, .306, this year he is at .247.

Derrek Lee career, .323, this year, with his recent hot streak, he is up to .317. When he struggled early he was at .213.

Yeeesh. To all of a sudden lose anywhere from 40 to 70 pts off of that number can be deadly. In the case of Soriano it might be that his bat has slowed, but in the other cases I do believe that they have been extremely unlucky.

Again, perhaps there will be a rebound, but you can never know.