GUYS PRIMED TO BREAK YOUR HEART FANTASY WISE

There is nothing worse than watching your fantasy stud who’d carried one aspect of your team for the whole season crumble in the latter stages of the season. You have to put him in there just because, but you know that it means damage to your chances to win a title.

Stop doing that. This is fantasy baseball, not real life baseball. You can afford to bench some of your studs and no one will be mad at you in the clubhouse.

Here are some of my picks who are primed for a late season collapse.

Dan Haren

His periphial stats are outstanding, the most of which is his Eric Gagne like WHIP of .81. The alarming part is that he has logged so many innings in that arm that it even started showing last year down the stretch when his ERA was 5.63 in August and 3.90 in Sept. Arm fatigue is an issue with Dan, so I’d expect to see an uptick in ERA and a serious regression WHIP-wise. Don’t drop him though, just let him sit after a bad August start.

Johnny Cueto

Decent WHIP, nice ERA, innings are out of control though for a guy who’s never been here before. He’s on pace to throw for 206 innings or so. While it is not way over last year’s total of 178, it is still significantly over, especially for a pitcher who wore down in the second half, struggling with command and seeing a dramatic decrease in SO-BB ratio. Watch out with him, if you can trade him do so.

Brandon Inge

He’s a 32 year old sometimes catcher who is having his best offensive season ever. If that does not scream collapse, then I can’t help you friend. He has a career 82 Adjusted OPS, yet this year he’s putting up a very impressive 127. He’s playing over his head, and if those knees start to bother his 32 year old frame, he’ll go in a hurry. The good thing is that his offensive value is not tied into speed, the bad thing is that it is tied into how many homers he can hit.

Ichiro

He’s a deadball player playing in the modern era. It’d be fine if he was, say, a second baseman. But for a corner outfielder, no matter how impressive those singles are, he’s merely slightly above average. He’s closer to the guy who hit .310 last year and had people questioning how much he had in the tank. His BABiP is an insane .382, and that’s going to fall. When a player with as many offensive limitations as Ichiro loses his only tool, his legs, his value will plummet.

Also, he’s not really helping you much at this point anyway, he doesn’t score as many runs as he should, and to tell you the truth, when he regresses he’ll be just a guy.

Jason Bartlett

Yes, he’s 29, athletic, and has always had a pretty decent contact rate. But .371? There’s no way. He’ll collaspe, but his value will be saved by an ok batting eye and a decent power stroke.

Is the no-DH rule killing you right now with interleague? Are you in need of an extra bat? Is Jim Thome and his pinch hitting limit killing you? Fear not! Here are a few adds that you can make to hold you over until your beefy hitters get to ride the pine for most of the game again.

Ian Stewart

Would it surprise you to find out that while Stewart is hitting a Mendoza like .218, he is still slugging .497? I’d add him because that average is going to go up crazy style in the next few months. I don’t expect him to finish at .300, but he will at least get to .255, which means a hot streak is a comin’. He also has positional flexibility, playing both second and third.

Michael Bourn

For a dude whose only tool is his speed, he’s having a heckuva year. His walk rate is up this year, and while he’ll K about 110-120 times this year, his strikeout rate is actually down. He’s making better contact and already has more XBHs this year than he did last. He doesn’t project out to be much more than this, so don’t go crazy with career projections, but he’s a solid 40-base stealer that isn’t owned more because of a bad reputation.

Casey Blake

He is having a solid year. The adjustments came and it’s translated into a .538 slugging percentage. He can be had, too! Owned in only 47% of ESPN leagues. He’ll continue to hit.

ONLY FOR THE AL GAMES

Jake Fox

The Cubs will go to Detroit first and probably slide Jake Fox into the DH spot. He’s a solid hitter and does well when he only has to worry about his bat and not the glove. He’s the perfect DH and his swing works very well in the Cell, a park the Cubs will visit after a round in DETROIT!

Guys you can drop

Dexter Fowler

He’s not there yet, and if you ain’t in a keeper league you don’t have the time to wait for him to get there. He’s going to be a much better player than this, he has Carl Crawford potential, but it won’t come this year.

Kosuke Fukudome

Good Lord! At least he is consistent. Again, a second half nosedive is going to be his undoing. Don’t wait it out with him unless you have the talent in the OF to do so. He looks terrible at the dish.

Keep an eye on…

Ricky Nolasco

Three straight solid innings and a healthy K rate should propel him to a strong second half. If you need the pitching, you can do worse than adding a Ricky Nolasco.

This week we’ll look at players who you should either sell high or buy low on, players off to hot starts or slow starts and guys you should watch out for.

We’ll go around to all the positions.

Catcher

Joe Mauer

Sell high, very high. He’s still hitting .415, but if you can move him for a bigger price, do so. He’ll hit .320 with maybe 30 HRs, which are great end numbers for a catcher, but that means he’s going to fall off his current pace of about 40 HRs. No way he keeps up the homer binge and that average will taper off some.

Geovany Soto

Buy. He’s going to hit his home runs, maybe 15, which means he has 13 or so left in his bat for the rest of the season. You can get him for dirt cheap right now. His swing looks a little faster now and his rest looks like it has helped him some.

1B

Adrian Gonzalez

Sell high. He hit 36 home runs last year and currently has 22. Considering he is the only offensive threat on the Fathers right now, he is not going to get anything to hit. NADA. He might hit 40, but that means that he has dropped off his pace significantly. He might end up scoring more runs, but for the stretch run, you need the insta-quad combo that the HR offers: A hit, a run, an RBI and a home run.

Paul Konerko

Oh you’ll want to buy this guy. His average will taper off but those home runs are a comin’. They might show up faster if he has a speedy recovery from that minor thumb injury. He finished last year hot, and started hot with the average this year. But in the summer heat, the Cell plays for home runs and he’s about to break out.

2B

Robinson Cano

Sell, sell now. His average is propping up his offensive value, and when that falls through the basement it won’t be pretty. I understand that park will help him hit home runs, but he won’t hit the 30 he’s on pace for. SELL

Brandon Phillips

Sell this guy too. I don’t like the SO-BB ratio and he looks primed for a second half collapse. He did it last year, and I’d expect it again this year. He has some value as 2B is thin, but if you can afford it, sell.

SS

Jimmy Rollins

Nobody will sell him, but if you find someone dumb enough to do so, BUY! He won’t hit .228 for the rest of the season, and while the days of him stealing 60 bags are gone, he won’t suddenly fail to steal 30. There’s value in that, especially at the shortstop position.

Alexei Ramirez

A local newspaper here in Chicago touted him as the best overall player on either side of town. People say nonsensical things about him like “he’s just a baseball player you know?” No, I don’t know. Those statements make no sense. That being said I’d only buy if you are thin at the position. He’s had a good swing lately, but Ozzie is a manager that gets impatient with guys who can’t bunt for example. Gordon Beckham is up with the club, and while Becks is currently at 3rd, it wouldn’t surprise me to see him play a little shortstop to spell Ramirez.

3B

Chone Figgins

You sell a guy like Chone because owners will look at his SB totals and be enamored, never mind the fact that 3B needs to be a power position because you can get Michael Bourn if you need steals that bad. He’ll fetch you something pretty nice in return too, players like Figgins are frequently overpaid for.

Mark Reynolds

Ahh, the historic 204 strikeouts in one season Mark Reynolds. I can stomach the Ks because he’s going to continue to hit taters in that ballpark. The question is can you? If you need to buy him, realize that his average is going to look UGLY over the next third of the season, but those homers are pretty sweet when you can get them. I’m buying.

OF

Raul Ibanez

He’s been kinda hit lucky this year with a .310 batting average, but there is nothing lucky about those taters. His K-BB ratio is a bit ugly, but not so bad that he’s primed for a massive avg. collapse or anything. I’ll say this, if you have the outfield that can live without him, sell him to get help somewhere else. But if he’s your primary HR guy out there, you have to keep him.

Adam Dunn

If you drafted him, you were already prepared to live with a .239 avg. anyway. So why are you going to trade him away now? He is the most consistent Fantasy player going right now, you know exactly what he’s going to do. That .280 avg. was a mirage, he’s going to hit about .260, which is where he is at now. Keep him.

SP

Zack Greinke

Unless your team is really unbalanced, you have to keep Greinke. He’s going to give up some home runs every once in a while and adjustments are being made to him as we speak, but Greinke is going to finish in the top 3 in Cy Young voting, he’s not going to win 25 games, but 20 isn’t out of the question. His ERA will spike, but not so much that you should sell him. Keep him if you got him, and if you don’t, don’t overpay.

Jason Marquis

Ah wins, they don’t really tell you anything about pitcher performance, do you? He has a 3.98 ERA and leads the NL in wins. His WHIP is high and he doesn’t really strike anyone out. Meanwhile Randy Wells has an ERA that you need a microscope to find and he has zero wins. Sell him high while you can, and do not buy him under any circumstances. There is a reason he gets left off playoff rosters.

RP

Andrew Bailey

If you missed out, see if you can trade for him because this guy is going to be a 100 strike out reliever with a good ERA and a decent WHIP. The reason he can be had is that the A’s stink so he won’t get you 30+ saves.

LaTroy Hawkins

Maybe you can trick someone into thinking he’ll hold up, but we all know he won’t. With Valverde coming back those save ops will be gone and Hawkins just isn’t as good as his middling numbers show.

So here we are, shortly after the 1/3 mark of the baseball season.

Some of you fantasy owners are really impatient.  I’ve seen guys get dropped after having a bad 3 days.  Heck, I got Joe Mauer off the Waiver Wire because somebody wanted to fill their catcher spot when Mauer was still on the DL.

So let’s start with what to watch for in the second third of the season with the top 10 players in Fantasy as I see them.

Zack Greinke

Man, this guy is consistent. He releases the ball from the same release point every time. Baseball is a game of doing the same thing over and over and over again, and it’s the repetitions that make you great. And he has been great. He will continue to be so in the second third, but not 1.10 ERA good. Adjustments have been made, and the White Sox got to him a bit in his last start. Look for an uptick in the ERA as he starts to give up a few more gopher balls because of the warming weather and better scouting reports on him, but his periphial stats (k-bb ratio, WHIP, opp avg, gb%) should stay the same.

Raul Ibanez

Good Lord, what a signing. Runs and RBIs are typicaly more about opportunity than actual talent, but this guy just rakes. Ibanez is a viable MVP candidate and the second third will see him taper off just a bit with his avg just because he doesn’t walk enough to sustain a .337 avg. But he won’t fall of the earth. His MVP caliber season will continue, but those RBIs will start to slow in growth because pitchers will stop pitching to him with runners on. Slg should stay the same and barring an injury he will challenge Pujols for the mantle of Fantasy king.

Speaking of

Albert Pujols

Do you realize that he has 16 home runs and 18 Ks? Them be video game numbers right there. Pujols should actually improve his avg. over the next few months and continue to mash the ball. He won’t slump, but this is as good as it gets fantasy-wise.

Carl Crawford

He leads the league in stolen bases and has already outdone his sb total from last year. After ‘06, this is the guy we expected to see, not the ‘08 dude that looked ordinary. I don’t know where he found his patience, but it’s working, and it’s going to help him during that inevitable slump that’s coming along soon. He’s red-hot right now, but I don’t see him hitting much over .300 if he does at all.

Roy Halladay

Well, I guess Cito Gaston is going to see if Nolan Ryan is right in thinking that high pitch counts actually help pitchers. It almost seems as though Cito is mad at Roy for some strange reason. But well here you are, arguably the best pitcher in the AL slaving away for a team destined to finish third, like the Jays always seem to do. Roy will wear down a bit and I’d watch for an injury here, of course if he doesn’t get injured and actually becomes more effecient with his innings it’s not out of the question that he can top 250 ip and be extremely valuable doing it. I like Roy, I just hope that Cito knows what he’s doing with him.

Ian Kinsler

It’s hard to find 2b who can slug .450-plus. Combine that with his high base-running IQ, and you have quite the player. He’s almost matched his HR total from last year as a lot of those doubles are starting to go over the fence now. He’s squaring up the ball better it looks like and I can see this guy surge during the second third. He might get to 30-30 but he’ll have to work hard on the basepaths to get there. Either way he’s a heckuva ballplayer.

Evan Longoria

I like Evan Longoria, I just don’t think he’s going to slug .614. He’s a nice player who surged at the start of the year but has since been hampered by a hamstring. It’s the type of minor injury that could sap a bit of his power and prevent him from being the best fantasy option in the AL. For now he’ll have to settle for the best 3b in baseball.

Adrian Gonzalez

What would you say if my inf. was Adrian, Evan, Ian, Youk, and Joe Mauer behind the dish? Yeah, I thought you’d be jealous. Adrian is putting it together but I don’t see him getting 40 plus home runs this year. While he is no slouch at home he is getting twice as many dingers on the road than at home. That’s not an indictment against him, it’s just that the road presents too many variables to say that he’ll continue to slug .806 away from PETCO. Dude needs to get out of San Diego and get his butt traded to the Cubs already.

Justin Morneau

Well, would you look at who found their HR stroke? And I don’t think he’s going to cool off, either. He’s finally figured out how to slug at the dome as he is out homering and out slugging his road stats at home. This is a trend that I think will continue as the weather heats up. I’d be wary though, once he reaches the midway point, because he has a tendency to disappear in August and September.

Hanley Ramirez

He won’t hit .340, but that .557 slg. percentage is no mirage. Those doubles will turn into home runs and I think he’s primed to go on a mini HR hot streak. He’s not as patient as he was last year but those Ks are down as well. He’s been a little hit-lucky, but I don’t see him falling much below .315.

Add these guys

Andrew Bailey, RP Oak

He’s the new Oakland closer and he’s not very well known. Oakland will play some really tight games because of their offense and he is a candidate to strike out 100 batters.

Hank Blalock, 3B Tex

Yeah, go ahead and bite on this guy. 12 homers during the first third and I think that average will come around. He’s currently hitting .252, but I see him more in the .270-.280 range.

Edwin Jackson, SP Det

This is the guy the Dodgers thought they drafted. He doesn’t strike out a lot of batters, but he does not give up many hits. He is improving on his numbers from last year and it looks like he’s figured out his control problems.

That’s all for this week, tune in next week for fantasy corner!